Steve Rick's guest appearances

Steve Rick

CUES Podcast

Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Vermont Credit Unions On Air

The Financial Exchange Show

Meb Faber

Suze Orman

Robert Kiyosaki

Chris Voss

Paula Pant

Chris Davis

Lacy Hunt

Robert Shiller

Scott Wilson

John Oliver

Campbell Harvey

Jack Bogle

Frank Holmes

Rob Arnott

Jerry Parker

OwlTail

As is always true with the economy, there is both good and bad news at once.On episode 111 of the CUES Podcast, Steve Rick says some of the good news is that the jobless rate has dropped back to a rate of 6.3%, after spiking to 14.7% at the height of the pandemic shutdown last year.Director and chief economist at CUESolutions Platinum provider for executive benefits CUNA Mutual Group, Madison, Wisconsin, Rick says economists believe that 4.5% is the “long-run natural employment rate” in the U.S. He is forecasting reaching that rate again by the end of 2022.“We do believe we will reach herd immunity, probably by the fourth quarter of this year … where … 75 to 80% of our population has been vaccinated and is … immune,” he says. “So, we're hoping by the end of this year to have the unemployment rate down to 5.5%.”Some of the bad news Rick cites includes the hard hit taken by retail businesses during the government-mandated shutdowns early in 2020. Many stores, restaurants and movie theaters have been severely disrupted or even permanently shut down in what Rick calls a “retail apocalypse.” While those that closed may never reopen, there is a glimmer of hope here, too. In the January retail sales report, Rick says, “We saw sales pick up 5.3% compared to December. Now, that's a huge jump. … if we can compare this January of 2021 … to January 2020 … before the pandemic, we're up 7.4%. Now, that is a huge increase, 7.4% in spending. … So we're actually seeing a nice recovery already.”Rick projects a jump in gross domestic product this year of about 4.5 percentage points. “So we're going to be making 4.5% more stuff, if you will, then we did last year,” he says. “And last year … we dropped 3.5% in the production of goods and services. So, a nice recovery for 2021. “… if we get another $1,400 stimulus check sometime this spring, you know, if President Biden gets his 1.9 trillion stimulus,” he adds, “we could see a really strong economy going into the second half of this year.”The show also gets into:More on the potential impact of any additional federal stimulus checksIdeas about retraining workers to help counteract unemploymentThe huge surge in member depositsThe answer to a question from CUES member Cynthia Ryan, EVP/COO of Connect Credit Union, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, about how to handle the boost in liquidity from the increase in member depositsThe mortgage refi boom and how many loans to sell on the secondary market in these timesThe potential impact of any forgiveness of federal student loan debtThe importance of cost control and managing net interest margin right nowLinks for this show:Email Steve RickCUESolutions Platinum provider for executive benefits CUNA Mutual Group, Madison, WisconsinCU Management magazine’s monthly CFO Focus columnsCUES Advanced Management Program from Cornell UniversityPartial transcript for Episode 111

As is always true with the economy, there is both good and bad news at once.On episode 111 of the CUES Podcast, Steve Rick says some of the good news is that the jobless rate has dropped back to a rate of 6.3%, after spiking to 14.7% at the height of the pandemic shutdown last year.Director and chief economist at CUESolutions Platinum provider for executive benefits <a href="http://www.cunamutual.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">CUNA Mutual Group</a>, Madison, Wisconsin, Rick says economists believe that 4.5% is the “long-run natural employment rate” in the U.S. He is forecasting reaching that rate again by the end of 2022.“We do believe we will reach herd immunity, probably by the fourth quarter of this year … where … 75 to 80% of our population has been vaccinated and is … immune,” he says. “So, we're hoping by the end of this year to have the unemployment rate down to 5.5%.”Some of the bad news Rick cites includes the hard hit taken by retail businesses during the government-mandated shutdowns early in 2020. Many stores, restaurants and movie theaters have been severely disrupted or even permanently shut down in what Rick calls a “retail apocalypse.” While those that closed may never reopen, there is a glimmer of hope here, too. In the January retail sales report, Rick says, “We saw sales pick up 5.3% compared to December. Now, that's a huge jump. … if we can compare this January of 2021 … to January 2020 … before the pandemic, we're up 7.4%. Now, that is a huge increase, 7.4% in spending. … So we're actually seeing a nice recovery already.”Rick projects a jump in gross domestic product this year of about 4.5 percentage points. “So we're going to be making 4.5% more stuff, if you will, then we did last year,” he says. “And last year … we dropped 3.5% in the production of goods and services. So, a nice recovery for 2021. “… if we get another $1,400 stimulus check sometime this spring, you know, if President Biden gets his 1.9 trillion stimulus,” he adds, “we could see a really strong economy going into the second half of this year.”The show also gets into:<ul><li>More on the potential impact of any additional federal stimulus checks</li><li>Ideas about retraining workers to help counteract unemployment</li><li>The huge surge in member deposits</li><li>The answer to a question from CUES member Cynthia Ryan, EVP/COO of Connect Credit Union, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, about how to handle the boost in liquidity from the increase in member deposits</li><li>The mortgage refi boom and how many loans to sell on the secondary market in these times</li><li>The potential impact of any forgiveness of federal student loan debt</li><li>The importance of cost control and managing net interest margin right now</li></ul>Links for this show:<ul><li>Email <a href="mailto:Steve.Rick@cunamutual.com">Steve Rick</a></li><li>CUESolutions Platinum provider for executive benefits <a href="http://www.cunamutual.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">CUNA Mutual Group</a>, Madison, Wisconsin</li><li>CU Management magazine’s monthly <a href="https://www.cumanagement.com/search?search=%22cfo+focus%3A%22" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">CFO Focus columns</a></li><li><a href="https://www.cues.org/professional-development-and-events/cues-advanced-management-program-cornell-university" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">CUES Advanced Management Program from Cornell University</a></li><li>Partial <a href="https://www.cumanagement.com/sites/default/files/2021-03/111%20partial%20transcript.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">transcript</a> for Episode 111</li></ul>

CUES 111: A ‘Nice Recovery’ Forecasted in 2021 Despite ‘Retail Apocalypse’—an Interview with Steve Rick

CUNA Mutual chief economist Steve Rick provides his insights and forecasts in AVCU's weekly COVID-19 virtual meeting of Vermont credit union leaders.

AVCU Weekly COVID-19 Update w/Steve Rick

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group and an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, talks about the current economy in glowing terms and says he sees strength continuing without interruption or a recession for the foreseeable future, noting that even as economic growth slows, he can see a strong rebound on the horizon for 2023. Thus, while there are potential storm clouds, he doesn't see them lasting for long if they hit home at all. Also on the show, Mitch Reiner of Capital Investment Advisors talks about income investing in The NAVigator, Tom Lydon makes a brand new specialty fund his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick of Bankrate.com talks about who is affected by bank fees and how much they're paying, and  Zach Johnson of Stack Financial Management covers the market's technical outlook.

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group and an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin, talks about the current economy in glowing terms and says he sees strength continuing without interruption or a recession for the foreseeable future, noting that even as economic growth slows, he can see a strong rebound on the horizon for 2023. Thus, while there are potential storm clouds, he doesn't see them lasting for long if they hit home at all. Also on the show, Mitch Reiner of Capital Investment Advisors talks about income investing in The NAVigator, Tom Lydon makes a brand new specialty fund his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick of <a href="http://Bankrate.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bankrate.com</a> talks about who is affected by bank fees and how much they're paying, and  Zach Johnson of Stack Financial Management covers the market's technical outlook.

CUNA Mutual's Steve Rick uses 3 words to sum up the economy: 'Fan Tas Tic'