Will the Bank of Japan follow the world in tightening? How far could rates go? What could that mean for public finances? Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Japan, explore Fitch’s latest thinking.

Will the Bank of Japan follow the world in tightening? How far could rates go? What could that mean for public finances? Thomas Rookmaaker, Head of APAC Sovereigns, and Krisjanis Krustins, Primary Analyst on Japan, explore Fitch’s latest thinking.

Japan’s monetary policy: shifting gears or doubling down?

In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, and Laure de Nervo, Primary Egypt Analyst, look into the current pressures on Egypt’s economy following Fitch’s downgrade of its sovereign credit rating in May.

In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, and Laure de Nervo, Primary Egypt Analyst, look into the current pressures on Egypt’s economy following Fitch’s downgrade of its sovereign credit rating in May.

How Sustainable are Egypt's External Finances

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, explore Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report, covering China's recovery, central bank inflation concerns, and more.

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Brian Coulton, Chief Economist, and Ed Parker, Global Head of Sovereigns Research, explore Fitch's new Global Economic Outlook report, covering China's recovery, central bank inflation concerns, and more.

Global Economic Outlook – Central Bank Inflation Fight Continues

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging European Sovereigns, and Erich Arispe, Sovereigns Senior Director, discuss the recent elections in Turkey, and how policy decisions by the Erdogan administration may impact the domestic economy

Paul Gamble, Head of Emerging European Sovereigns, and Erich Arispe, Sovereigns Senior Director, discuss the recent elections in Turkey, and how policy decisions by the Erdogan administration may impact the domestic economy

Turkish Elections and the Economic Impact

Central America’s Positive Rating Momentum

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, James Longsdon, Global Head of Banks, and Christopher Wolfe, Head of Bank Ratings, North America,  discuss the recent volatility in the US banking sector, including what still to watch in 2023.

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, James Longsdon, Global Head of Banks, and Christopher Wolfe, Head of Bank Ratings, North America,  discuss the recent volatility in the US banking sector, including what still to watch in 2023.

Stress and consequences for the US Banking Sector

Crude oil exports to Western Europe are vital to Kazakhstan's economy - learn more about the related geopolitical challenges from Michele Napolitano, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director, Emerging Europe Sovereigns

Crude oil exports to Western Europe are vital to Kazakhstan's economy - learn more about the related geopolitical challenges from Michele Napolitano, Head of Western European Sovereigns, and Arvind Ramakrishnan, Director, Emerging Europe Sovereigns

Kazakhstan - Geopolitics and Oil Exports

In this edition of Fixed Interests, Sovereigns Senior Director Thomas Rookmaaker, and Director Jeremy Zook, discuss India's fiscal outlook after the recent budget, including plans for sustaining growth while targeting modest deficit reductions.

In this edition of Fixed Interests, Sovereigns Senior Director Thomas Rookmaaker, and Director Jeremy Zook, discuss India's fiscal outlook after the recent budget, including plans for sustaining growth while targeting modest deficit reductions.

India’s Fiscal Outlook after the 2023 Budget

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Mike Girard, Director, ABS, and Mark Narron, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, explore how recent bank rate hikes are impacting Canadian consumers - from unemployment rates, to household debt &amp; more.

In the latest episode of Fixed Interests, Mike Girard, Director, ABS, and Mark Narron, Senior Director, Financial Institutions, explore how recent bank rate hikes are impacting Canadian consumers - from unemployment rates, to household debt &amp; more.

Rate Hikes and Canadian Consumers

Shelly Shetty, Managing Director, Sovereigns, and Todd Martinez, Senior Director, Sovereigns, discuss the policy and rating outlook for Brazil under the new government of President Lula, following his October election win over Jair Bolsonaro.

What to Expect From Brazil’s New Government

From global macroeconomic trends to impacts on the credit markets to regulatory and political changes, Fixed Interests delivers your economic update in 15 minutes or less.

Fixed Interests

Persistently high fiscal deficits leading to rising debt burden and high government financing needs has led Fitch to downgrade Costa Rica. Charles Seville, Head of North America Sovereigns, and Carlos Morales, Director, Sovereigns, discuss Costa Rica in more detail, exploring the reasons behind the downgrade and how this negative outlook may be resolved.

Costa Rica

The relative stability of the service sector  - which accounts for 70% of GDP in the advanced economies – should help global growth to stabilise next year after a sharp leg down in 2019. Manufacturing has been hit much harder by the trade war, the related decline in business investment and the broader emerging market slowdown and we do not expect any rebound, even if signs are emerging that the downturn maybe starting to ease.  Service sector output is much more closely tied to consumer spending, where tight labour markets and solid household income growth are supporting steady growth.

Global Economic Outlook

Tune into our latest Fixed Interest podcast with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Tony Stringer, COO, Global Sovereigns Group, who discuss what's in store for the global economy in 2019. For more content providing in-depth insight into credit in 2019, including reports, videos and webinars visit our dedicated Credit Outlook page https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2019.html

Tune into our latest Fixed Interest podcast with Brian Coulton, Chief Economist and Tony Stringer, COO, Global Sovereigns Group, who discuss what's in store for the global economy in 2019. For more content providing in-depth insight into credit in 2019, including reports, videos and webinars visit our dedicated Credit Outlook page <a href="https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2019.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://your.fitchratings.com/outlooks-2019.html</a>

Cracks Appearing in Global Growth Picture as 2020 Headwinds Rise

Asia’s Frontier Markets have great potential, but are also prone to external financing pressures. Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, moderates a discussion with Sagarika Chandra and Jeremy Zook, Associate Directors on the Sovereigns team, to discuss the ratings outlook for Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Vietnam. Sagarika explains the rationale for the recent revision of Sri Lanka’s outlook to negative, in contrast to Vietnam’s positive outlook. Jeremy discusses progress being made to strengthen Pakistan’s public and external finances, and what it would take for Pakistan’s rating to move higher.

Asian Frontier Markets

Public finances in several developed markets look exposed when the next recession eventually strikes, with potential negative consequences for some sovereign ratings.

Public Finances at Risk When Next Recession Strikes

World growth forecasts have been cut across the board following the escalation in the US-China trade war in August. We now expect world growth in 2020 to fall to 2.5% , the lowest rate since 2012.  Trade policy disruptions will adversely affect exports, manufacturing and business investment and there are limits as to how effective monetary policy easing will be in softening the blow.

Fixed Interests Global Economic Outlook

On the latest Fixed Interests, senior members of Fitch’s Economics and Sovereign teams discuss potential growth rates of the largest emerging markets. Analysis highlights the importance of demographic factors and investment rates, placing India ahead of China over the next 5 years with projected GDP growth of 6.7% versus 5.5%.

Fixed Interests: China’s growth potential will fall to 5.5%, well below India’s in next 5 years

What are the implications of Argentina’s most recent presidential election, and how will it affect the nation’s current economic uncertainty? In the latest edition of Fixed Interests, Shelly Shetty, Co-Head of Sovereigns-Americas and Todd Martinez, Primary Analyst for Argentina, discuss President-elect Alberto Fernandez’s potential fiscal policies to help stem inflation, the pending renegotiation of the IMF program, and necessary debt restructuring to avoid default and establish a sustainable financial position.

Argentina's Post-Election & Debt Restructuring Prospects

Tony Stringer, Managing Director, Global Sovereigns and Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings discuss Sub-Saharan African (SSA) debt, noting government debt/GDP has risen steeply in SSA, with the median of 19 Fitch-rated sovereigns doubling since 2012 to 56% at end-2018. Fitch believes that SSA sovereigns have used some of the fiscal space afforded by the Highly Indebted Poor Countries initiative to boost investment, GDP growth and human development.

Sub-Saharan African Debt

Political risk is a key determinant of sovereign creditworthiness, Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign Ratings, say.They highlight that political and governance issues were the driving or supporting factors in a cumulative 47% of sovereign downgrades, rating crises, or defaults from 1997 to present. They point to current political events that may negatively affect ratings such as:•	Activity in the Korean Peninsula•	The Gulf and wider Middle Eastern tensions•	US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal•	Global oil prices

Political risk is a key determinant of sovereign creditworthiness, Ed Parker, Head of EMEA Sovereign Ratings and James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereign Ratings, say. They highlight that political and governance issues were the driving or supporting factors in a cumulative 47% of sovereign downgrades, rating crises, or defaults from 1997 to present. They point to current political events that may negatively affect ratings such as: •	Activity in the Korean Peninsula •	The Gulf and wider Middle Eastern tensions •	US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal •	Global oil prices

Political Risk in Sovereign Ratings

Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, and Thomas Rookmaaker, Director and Lead Analyst for India of Sovereigns Ratings, discuss India’s fiscal and growth outlook, along with the key drivers of the sovereign rating.

India Fiscal and Growth Outlook

The global economy is experiencing boom-like growth conditions and central banks are becoming less cautious as inflation risks rise, according to Fitch's latest "Global Economic Outlook" (GEO). The US, eurozone and China are all likely to grow well above trend in 2018 and global economic growth is set to remain above 3% for three consecutive years until 2019, a performance not achieved since the mid 2000s.

Global Growth Booming, Banks Less Cautious

Demographic trends such as declining or rapidly expanding populations, a bulging youth cohort or pronounced ageing can create risks to sovereign creditworthiness. Key channels of impact include stagnant potential GDP growth, unsustainable pension systems and public debt, and risks to social and political stability. Demographic forces are already affecting some sovereign ratings and Fitch Ratings believes they are likely to become a more important driver over the medium term.

Demographic Trends

Tune into the latest Fixed Interests and listen to James McCormack, Global Head of Sovereigns &amp; Supranational Group, Fitch Ratings and Andrew Fennell, Director, Sovereigns, Fitch Ratings, discuss Fitch’s recent affirmation of China’s ‘A+’ rating.  James and Andrew explore current policy settings, the growth outlook, and provide insights into the deleveraging story whilst giving Fitch’s view on whether household debt will become a credit issue.

China Sovereign Update

James McCormack, Head of Sovereign Ratings and Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, provide a preview of key issues that will be discussed at Fitch’s Global Sovereign Conferences taking place in Asia, Europe and the U.S. during the weeks of September 9th and 16th. Issues include the growth implications of the China-US trade war, and policy space across Asia for stimulus, if required, in light of risks to the growth outlook. Check out the events page on Fitchratings.com for more information and conference registration.

James McCormack, Head of Sovereign Ratings and Stephen Schwartz, Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings, provide a preview of key issues that will be discussed at Fitch’s Global Sovereign Conferences taking place in Asia, Europe and the U.S. during the weeks of September 9th and 16th. Issues include the growth implications of the China-US trade war, and policy space across Asia for stimulus, if required, in light of risks to the growth outlook. Check out the events page on <a href="http://Fitchratings.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Fitchratings.com</a> for more information and conference registration.

Global Sovereign Conferences Key Talking Points

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings' Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Director, Business and Relationship Management, discuss the themes of Fitch Ratings' latest report: The Credit Outlook 3Q17 (QE and World Growth Buoy Global Rating Outlooks).

Credit Market Insights: QE and World Growth Buoy Global Rating Outlooks

In our latest Global Economic Outlook James McCormack, Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sovereign Ratings and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, discuss growth revisions in 2017 which are, for the most part, positive.  There were 12 upgrades to growth forecasts of the 20 countries examined.

Global Economic Outlook: Strongest World Growth Expected Since 2010

Monica Insoll, Fitch Ratings Head of Credit Market Research, talks with Michael Larsson, Director of Credit Market Research, about how European credit markets are being impacted by the improving economy, political risk, and ECB QE programmes.

Credit Market Insights: European Growth Pick-Up Boosts 2017 Issuance

James McCormack, Fitch Ratings Global Head of Sovereigns, and Brian Coulton, Fitch Chief Economist, discuss US monetary policy and the implications of the Fed's recent rate hike.

Global Economic Outlook: Is US Monetary Policy Reaching an Inflation Point?

Monica Insoll, Head of Credit Market Research and Joseph Cass, Associate Director, Investor Development, provide a 10 minute high-level overview of Fitch Ratings’ Global Credit Outlook report. They identify the main macro issues that will drive credit trends over the next 12 to 24 months, focussing on what factors are most likely to drive rating changes during 2017.

Credit Market Insights: Global Credit Outlook

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