Robert de Neufville's guest appearances

Robert de Neufville

Future of Life Institute Podcast

80k After Hours

Sam Harris

Steven Pinker

Mike Johnson

Yuval Noah Harari

Fran Moore

Dario Amodei

Robin Hanson

Stuart Russell

Sean Carroll

Stephen Batchelor

William MacAskill

Joshua Greene

John Prendergast

George Church

David Chalmers

OwlTail

In this episode of 80k After Hours, Rob Wiblin interviews Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville about forecasting the war between Russia and Ukraine.Links to learn more, highlights and full transcript.They cover: Their early predictions for the war The performance of the Russian military The risk of use of nuclear weapons The most interesting remaining topics on Russia and Ukraine General lessons we can take from the war The evolution of the forecasting space What Robert and Clay were reading back in February Forecasters vs. subject matter experts Ways to get involved with the forecasting community Impressive past predictions And more Who this episode is for: People interested in forecasting People interested in the war in Ukraine People who prefer to know how likely they are to die in a nuclear war  Who this episode isn’t for: People who’d hate it if a friend said they were 65% likely to come out for drinks People who’d prefer if their death from nuclear war was a total surprise  Get this episode by subscribing to our more experimental podcast on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80k After Hours’ into your podcasting app. Or read the transcript below.Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio mastering: Ben CordellTranscriptions: Katy Moore

In this episode of 80k After Hours, Rob Wiblin interviews Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville about forecasting the war between Russia and Ukraine.<a href="https://80000hours.org/after-hours-podcast/episodes/clay-graubard-robert-de-neufville-forecasting-ukraine/?utm_campaign=podcast__clay-robert&amp;utm_source=80kah&amp;utm_medium=podcast" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Links to learn more, highlights and full transcript.</a>They cover:<ul> <li>Their early predictions for the war</li> <li>The performance of the Russian military</li> <li>The risk of use of nuclear weapons</li> <li>The most interesting remaining topics on Russia and Ukraine</li> <li>General lessons we can take from the war</li> <li>The evolution of the forecasting space</li> <li>What Robert and Clay were reading back in February</li> <li>Forecasters vs. subject matter experts</li> <li>Ways to get involved with the forecasting community</li> <li>Impressive past predictions</li> <li>And more</li> </ul> Who this episode is for:<ul> <li>People interested in forecasting</li> <li>People interested in the war in Ukraine</li> <li>People who prefer to know how likely they are to die in a nuclear war </li> </ul>Who this episode isn’t for:<ul> <li>People who’d hate it if a friend said they were 65% likely to come out for drinks</li> <li>People who’d prefer if their death from nuclear war was a total surprise </li> </ul> Get this episode by subscribing to our more experimental podcast on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80k After Hours’ into your podcasting app. Or read the transcript below. Producer: Keiran Harris Audio mastering: Ben Cordell Transcriptions: Katy Moore

Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine

Essential to our assessment of risk and ability to plan for the future is our understanding of the probability of certain events occurring. If we can estimate the likelihood of risks, then we can evaluate their relative importance and apply our risk mitigation resources effectively. Predicting the future is, obviously, far from easy — and yet a community of "superforecasters" are attempting to do just that. Not only are they trying, but these superforecasters are also reliably outperforming subject matter experts at making predictions in their own fields. Robert de Neufville joins us on this episode of the FLI Podcast to explain what superforecasting is, how it's done, and the ways it can help us with crucial decision making. Topics discussed in this episode include:-What superforecasting is and what the community looks like-How superforecasting is done and its potential use in decision making-The challenges of making predictions-Predictions about and lessons from COVID-19You can find the page for this podcast here: https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/30/on-superforecasting-with-robert-de-neufville/You can take a survey about the podcast here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/W8YLYD3You can submit a nominee for the Future of Life Award here: https://futureoflife.org/future-of-life-award-unsung-hero-search/Timestamps: 0:00 Intro5:00 What is superforecasting?7:22 Who are superforecasters and where did they come from?10:43 How is superforecasting done and what are the relevant skills?15:12 Developing a better understanding of probabilities18:42 How is it that superforecasters are better at making predictions than subject matter experts?21:43 COVID-19 and a failure to understand exponentials24:27 What organizations and platforms exist in the space of superforecasting?27:31 Whats up for consideration in an actual forecast28:55 How are forecasts aggregated? Are they used?31:37 How accurate are superforecasters?34:34 How is superforecasting complementary to global catastrophic risk research and efforts?39:15 The kinds of superforecasting platforms that exist43:00 How accurate can we get around global catastrophic and existential risks?46:20 How to deal with extremely rare risk and how to evaluate your prediction after the fact53:33 Superforecasting, expected value calculations, and their use in decision making56:46 Failure to prepare for COVID-19 and if superforecasting will be increasingly applied to critical decision making01:01:55 What can we do to improve the use of superforecasting?01:02:54 Forecasts about COVID-1901:11:43 How do you convince others of your ability as a superforecaster?01:13:55 Expanding the kinds of questions we do forecasting on01:15:49 How to utilize subject experts and superforecasters01:17:54 Where to find and follow RobertThis podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable consider supporting it directly by donating at futureoflife.org/donate. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

Essential to our assessment of risk and ability to plan for the future is our understanding of the probability of certain events occurring. If we can estimate the likelihood of risks, then we can evaluate their relative importance and apply our risk mitigation resources effectively. Predicting the future is, obviously, far from easy — and yet a community of "superforecasters" are attempting to do just that. Not only are they trying, but these superforecasters are also reliably outperforming subject matter experts at making predictions in their own fields. Robert de Neufville joins us on this episode of the FLI Podcast to explain what superforecasting is, how it's done, and the ways it can help us with crucial decision making.  Topics discussed in this episode include: -What superforecasting is and what the community looks like -How superforecasting is done and its potential use in decision making -The challenges of making predictions -Predictions about and lessons from COVID-19 You can find the page for this podcast here: <a href="https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/30/on-superforecasting-with-robert-de-neufville/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/30/on-superforecasting-with-robert-de-neufville/</a> You can take a survey about the podcast here: <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/W8YLYD3" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/W8YLYD3</a> You can submit a nominee for the Future of Life Award here: <a href="https://futureoflife.org/future-of-life-award-unsung-hero-search/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://futureoflife.org/future-of-life-award-unsung-hero-search/</a> Timestamps:  0:00 Intro 5:00 What is superforecasting? 7:22 Who are superforecasters and where did they come from? 10:43 How is superforecasting done and what are the relevant skills? 15:12 Developing a better understanding of probabilities 18:42 How is it that superforecasters are better at making predictions than subject matter experts? 21:43 COVID-19 and a failure to understand exponentials 24:27 What organizations and platforms exist in the space of superforecasting? 27:31 Whats up for consideration in an actual forecast 28:55 How are forecasts aggregated? Are they used? 31:37 How accurate are superforecasters? 34:34 How is superforecasting complementary to global catastrophic risk research and efforts? 39:15 The kinds of superforecasting platforms that exist 43:00 How accurate can we get around global catastrophic and existential risks? 46:20 How to deal with extremely rare risk and how to evaluate your prediction after the fact 53:33 Superforecasting, expected value calculations, and their use in decision making 56:46 Failure to prepare for COVID-19 and if superforecasting will be increasingly applied to critical decision making 01:01:55 What can we do to improve the use of superforecasting? 01:02:54 Forecasts about COVID-19 01:11:43 How do you convince others of your ability as a superforecaster? 01:13:55 Expanding the kinds of questions we do forecasting on 01:15:49 How to utilize subject experts and superforecasters 01:17:54 Where to find and follow Robert This podcast is possible because of the support of listeners like you. If you found this conversation to be meaningful or valuable consider supporting it directly by donating at <a href="http://futureoflife.org/donate" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">futureoflife.org/donate</a>. Contributions like yours make these conversations possible.

FLI Podcast: On Superforecasting with Robert de Neufville

Seth Baum

What are the odds of a nuclear war happening this century? And how close have we been to nuclear war in the past? Few academics focus on the probability of nuclear war, but many leading voices like former US Secretary of Defense, William Perry, argue that the threat of nuclear conflict is growing.On this month's podcast, Ariel spoke with Seth Baum and Robert de Neufville from the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI), who recently coauthored a report titled A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War. The report examines 60 historical incidents that could have escalated to nuclear war and presents a model for determining the odds are that we could have some type of nuclear war in the future.

What are the odds of a nuclear war happening this century? And how close have we been to nuclear war in the past? Few academics focus on the probability of nuclear war, but many leading voices like former US Secretary of Defense, William Perry, argue that the threat of nuclear conflict is growing. On this month's podcast, Ariel spoke with Seth Baum and Robert de Neufville from the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI), who recently coauthored a report titled A Model for the Probability of Nuclear War. The report examines 60 historical incidents that could have escalated to nuclear war and presents a model for determining the odds are that we could have some type of nuclear war in the future.

What are the odds of nuclear war? A conversation with Seth Baum and Robert de Neufville