Ben Melkman's guest appearances

Ben Melkman

Alpha Exchange

The Macro Trading Floor

Chris Cole

Andrew Scott

Campbell Harvey

Howard Marks

James Grant

Andy Redleaf

Jared Dillian

Christopher Cole

Mark Miller

Jeff deGraaf

Alberto Gallo

Merrill Lynch

Michael Green

Jim Bianco

Michael Pettis

OwlTail

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder &amp; CIO of Light Sky Macro.Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx--DASDigital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit digitalassetsummit.io and sign up--Follow Andreas: https://twitter.com/AndreasStenoFollow Alfonso: https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/Subscribe To Stenos Signals: https://andreassteno.substack.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas: https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably UK's Liz Truss will probe extent of Bank of England independence, supporter says: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:01) Natural Gas In Europe(03:40) Inflation In Europe(06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe(10:55) Feature Interview: Ben Melkman(11:31) A Secular Shift For Inflation(21:00) Jerome Powell's Comments At Jackson Hole(28:49) Will The Fed Accept Above 2% Inflation?(31:09) The U.S Dollar(37:41) Ben's Actionable Trade Idea(47:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “The Macro Trading Floor,” Andreas and Alfonso welcome Ben Melkman Founder &amp; CIO of Light Sky Macro. Expecting a secular shift in inflation, Ben shares his thoughts on the current state of markets as the Fed continues their fight to slay the inflation dragon. Could the Fed be out of ammo? Are markets mispriced for a secular shift in inflation? Ben walks through the biggest opportunities he sees today in markets before sharing his actionable trade idea, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--This episode is sponsored by Saxo Bank. Saxo Bank offers unparalleled market coverage across fiat, crypto and metals. Moreover, you can trade Gold your way, using either Futures, Options, Forwards or ETCs. Discover more opportunities at https://goto.saxo/macrofx--DASDigital Asset Summit is crypto's most institutional conference. DAS is the only conference that truly combines the worlds of macro finance and crypto, with speakers like Danielle DiMartino Booth, Mike Green, Jurrien Timmer, Brent Johnson. Visit <a href="http://digitalassetsummit.io" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">digitalassetsummit.io</a> and sign up--Follow Andreas: <a href="https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno</a>Follow Alfonso: <a href="https://twitter.com/MacroAlf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/MacroAlf</a>Follow Blockworks: <a href="https://twitter.com/Blockworks_" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/Blockworks_</a> Subscribe To The Macro Compass: <a href="https://themacrocompass.substack.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://themacrocompass.substack.com/</a>Subscribe To Stenos Signals: <a href="https://andreassteno.substack.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://andreassteno.substack.com/</a>Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://blockworks.co/newsletter/</a>--Referenced In The Show:  Stenos Signals #13 - No, Germany is probably not running out of gas: <a href="https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://andreassteno.substack.com/p/stenos-signals-13-no-germany-is-probably</a> UK's Liz Truss will probe extent of Bank of England independence, supporter says: <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks-liz-truss-will-probe-extent-bank-england-independence-supporter-says-2022-08-04/</a>--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:01) Natural Gas In Europe(03:40) Inflation In Europe(06:26) Pricing A Systemic Risk In Europe(10:55) Feature Interview: Ben Melkman(11:31) A Secular Shift For Inflation(21:00) Jerome Powell's Comments At Jackson Hole(28:49) Will The Fed Accept Above 2% Inflation?(31:09) The U.S Dollar(37:41) Ben's Actionable Trade Idea(47:55) Post Interview: Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on The Macro Trading Floor should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research &amp; speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ben Melkman: Expecting A U.S Dollar Decline

Fascinated by markets at a very young age, Ben Melkman has spent his investing career thinking through the intersection of politics, macroeconomics and the price of options.  After earning a degree from the London School of Economics, Ben hit the FX desk at Morgan Stanley, quickly establishing himself as an invaluable resource for the largest macro hedge funds who sought his counsel on how best to structure trades in light of vol surfaces on offer across asset markets.  After a highly successful run at Brevan Howard, Ben established Light Sky Macro in 2016.  Our conversation is about large vol events.  With respect to the Global Financial Crisis, Ben dove into the complexities of credit derivative markets, concluding that the price of insurance was outlandishly cheap relative to the actual risks and the potential for contagion.  In our discussion, Ben makes highly insightful points around the inherent risks of over-reliance on modeling, the degree to which correlation assumptions can lead to gross underestimation of risk and the vast interconnectedness of the financial system.  Ben’s views on the interaction between politics and markets and the manner in which investors sometimes fail to anticipate regime shifts is fascinating.  He points to the onset of Abenomics in 2013, a massive campaign that aggressively pushed the yen down, Nikkei up and volatility up.  In the period prior to this wholesale shift in policy, option prices were all skewed in the opposite direction.  As we finish this excellent discussion, Ben looks forward to the potential that the combination of more aggressive fiscal policy in conjunction with accommodative monetary policy might cause a re-think of the inflation shortfall that has characterized the post–crisis era, at the very time when inflation is a highly unloved asset class.  Lastly, Ben offers thoughts on the 2020 US election, excited about the potential market action that may arise from the starkly different views offered by the Democrats and Republicans.  Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Melkman.

Fascinated by markets at a very young age, Ben Melkman has spent his investing career thinking through the intersection of politics, macroeconomics and the price of options.  After earning a degree from the London School of Economics, Ben hit the FX desk at Morgan Stanley, quickly establishing himself as an invaluable resource for the largest macro hedge funds who sought his counsel on how best to structure trades in light of vol surfaces on offer across asset markets.  After a highly successful run at Brevan Howard, Ben established Light Sky Macro in 2016.  Our conversation is about large vol events.  With respect to the Global Financial Crisis, Ben dove into the complexities of credit derivative markets, concluding that the price of insurance was outlandishly cheap relative to the actual risks and the potential for contagion.  In our discussion, Ben makes highly insightful points around the inherent risks of over-reliance on modeling, the degree to which correlation assumptions can lead to gross underestimation of risk and the vast interconnectedness of the financial system.  Ben’s views on the interaction between politics and markets and the manner in which investors sometimes fail to anticipate regime shifts is fascinating.  He points to the onset of Abenomics in 2013, a massive campaign that aggressively pushed the yen down, Nikkei up and volatility up.  In the period prior to this wholesale shift in policy, option prices were all skewed in the opposite direction.  As we finish this excellent discussion, Ben looks forward to the potential that the combination of more aggressive fiscal policy in conjunction with accommodative monetary policy might cause a re-think of the inflation shortfall that has characterized the post–crisis era, at the very time when inflation is a highly unloved asset class.  Lastly, Ben offers thoughts on the 2020 US election, excited about the potential market action that may arise from the starkly different views offered by the Democrats and Republicans.  Please enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Melkman.

Ben Melkman, Founder and CIO, Light Sky Macro LP