Tai Pruce Zimmerman's guest appearances

Tai Pruce Zimmerman

Perpetual Chess Podcast

Jacob Aagard

Fred Wilson

James Altucher

John MacArthur

Ben Johnson

Sean Williams

Aleksandr Lenderman

Danny Rensch

Jacob Aagaard

Grandmaster Timur Gareyev

Joe Posnanski

Jonathan Rowson

Michael Regan

John Hartmann

Macauley Peterson

OwlTail

Robert Hess

The wait is almost over! With the 2022 FIDE Candidates Tournament beginning June 17, we present one last deep dive on this chess-history defining tournament. The winner of this tournament is slated to play GM Magnus Carlsen in the 2023 World Championship match if it takes place. I am joined by two separate guests to discuss the players and what we can expect. First up is GM Robert Hess. Robert, of course, is an insightful and popular commentator who will be traveling to Madrid to cover the event live with his Chess.com team. Robert and I discuss each player individually, as Robert shares his reflections on what he has observed from many years of observing these players up close. Robert’s other appearance on the podcast was nearly 5 years ago, so after an hour of FIDE Candidates talk, we spend some time catching up on other chess-related matters. Following Robert, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the “Chess by the Numbers” blog. I always enjoy getting Tai’s insights, which are primarily derived from an Elo-rating based model. Who is statistically most likely to win? How do Tai’s numerical assessments differ from those of other models and the betting markets? Tune in to hear some fascinating Candidates discussion!You can find brief timestamps below, and more detailed ones on the podcast website here.FIDE Candidates info here01:00- Intro with details on the Candidates format and Schedule. Prior GM Robert Hess appearance 05:45- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Chessable.com you can find the free “Endgame Strategy” Lesson from GM Sam Shankland here:https://www.chessable.com/course/1156737:45- How does Candidates prep compare for Robert and his announcing team compare to prep for an event like the World Championship?13:00- What can Robert share about GM Jan-Krystof Duda? 16:45- GM Teimour Radjabov 20:00- GM Hikaru Nakamura 29:30- GM Ian Nepomniatchtchi 35:00- GM Richard Rapport41:00- GM Fabiano Caruana 47:15- GM Alireza Firouzja 55:45- GM Ding Liren 1:07:00- How does Robert approach commentating on an event like the ongoing “I am not a GM” tourney on Chess.com?1:15:15- Robert’s OTB exploits! How did it feel to draw GM Viswanathan Anand in 2018 and defeating GM Sam Shankland in 2019. 1:24:45- Global Chess Championship more info here 1:26:30- How does Robert work on his commentary?1:35:30- Robert’s Book Recs:1:36:30- Does Robert get recognized in public much? 1:42:45- What is Robert looking forward to most about the Candidates?1:46:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Aimchess.com. Aimchess’ algorithm reviews your games and gives you actionable advice of how to improve your game. Check it out for free and if you choose to subscribe you can use the code Perpetual30 to save 30%. 1:48:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the Chess by the Numbers blog joins to give an analytical perspective on the FIDE Candidates. We begin by discussing what differentiates the Candidates from other tournaments. 1:56:15- What do the betting markets and Tai’s model say the probabilities are for each player?Mentioned: BWIN odds here, Smarter Chess Probabilities here 2:06:00- Which player does Tai think the betting market undervalues? Thanks so much to Tai for joining us again. Be sure to subscribe to his blog and support his work via his website. Follow him on Twitter here.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The wait is almost over! With the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">2022 FIDE Candidates Tournament</a> beginning June 17, we present one last deep dive on this chess-history defining tournament. The winner of this tournament is slated to play GM Magnus Carlsen in the 2023 World Championship match if it takes place. I am joined by two separate guests to discuss the players and what we can expect. First up is GM Robert Hess. Robert, of course, is an insightful and popular commentator who will be traveling to Madrid to cover the event live with his <a href="http://Chess.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chess.com</a> team. Robert and I discuss each player individually, as Robert shares his reflections on what he has observed from many years of observing these players up close. Robert’s other appearance on the podcast was nearly 5 years ago, so after an hour of FIDE Candidates talk, we spend some time catching up on other chess-related matters. Following Robert, I am joined by Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the “Chess by the Numbers” blog. I always enjoy getting Tai’s insights, which are primarily derived from an Elo-rating based model. Who is statistically most likely to win? How do Tai’s numerical assessments differ from those of other models and the betting markets? Tune in to hear some fascinating Candidates discussion!You can find brief timestamps below, and more detailed ones on the podcast website <a href="https://www.perpetualchesspod.com/new-blog" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>.FIDE Candidates info <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> 01:00- Intro with details on the Candidates format and Schedule. <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/6VrRuUid8xgysS3KEYfyot?si=67ffa51faf264d2b" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Prior GM Robert Hess appearance </a> 05:45- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by <a href="http://Chessable.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chessable.com</a> you can find the free “Endgame Strategy” Lesson from GM Sam Shankland here:<a href="https://www.chessable.com/course/115673" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.chessable.com/course/115673</a> 7:45- How does Candidates prep compare for Robert and his announcing team compare to prep for an event like the World Championship? 13:00- What can Robert share about GM Jan-Krystof Duda?  16:45- GM Teimour Radjabov  20:00- GM Hikaru Nakamura  29:30- GM Ian Nepomniatchtchi  35:00- GM Richard Rapport 41:00- GM Fabiano Caruana  47:15- GM Alireza Firouzja  55:45- GM Ding Liren  1:07:00- How does Robert approach commentating on an event like the ongoing “<a href="https://www.chess.com/article/view/im-not-a-gm-speed-chess-championship-2022" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">I am not a GM</a>” tourney on <a href="http://Chess.com?" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chess.com?</a> 1:15:15- Robert’s OTB exploits! How did it feel to draw GM Viswanathan Anand in 2018 and defeating GM Sam Shankland in 2019.  1:24:45- Global Chess Championship more info <a href="https://www.chess.com/article/view/chesscom-global-championship-2022?ref_id=17919348" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> 1:26:30- How does Robert work on his commentary? 1:35:30- Robert’s Book Recs: 1:36:30- Does Robert get recognized in public much?  1:42:45- What is Robert looking forward to most about the Candidates? 1:46:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by <a href="http://Aimchess.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aimchess.com</a>. Aimchess’ algorithm reviews your games and gives you actionable advice of how to improve your game. Check it out for free and if you choose to subscribe you can use the code Perpetual30 to save 30%.  1:48:00- Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the Chess by the Numbers blog joins to give an analytical perspective on the FIDE Candidates. We begin by discussing what differentiates the Candidates from other tournaments.  1:56:15- What do the betting markets and Tai’s model say the probabilities are for each player?Mentioned: BWIN odds <a href="https://sports.bwin.com/en/sports/events/candidates-tournament-2022-12396155" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>, Smarter Chess Probabilities<a href="https://www.chess.com/article/view/smarterchess-candidates-prediction-2022" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> here </a> 2:06:00- Which player does Tai think the betting market undervalues?  Thanks so much to Tai for joining us again. Be sure to subscribe to his blog and support his work <a href="https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">via his website</a>. Follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/ChessNumbers" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

EP 282- 2022 FIDE Candidates Preview Double Episode with GM Robert Hess and Tai Pruce Zimmerman of the Chess by the Numbers Blog 

My guest for Part 2 of the World Chess Championship preview is chess blogger Tai Pruce Zimmerman. Tai is an accountant by training, who created the excellent Chess by the Numbers blog to write about elite chess from a statistical perspective. With the World Championship just days away, I was excited to have the opportunity to ask Tai to walk us through various scenarios in the upcoming showdown between GMs Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniatchtchi. We tackled questions such as the following:  Based on rating, how likely is Magnus to win? How likely are we to see tiebreaks? Would Magnus be as big a favorite if the match were to go to rapid tiebreaks? How likely would it be that one player “adopt” another? We take on all of these questions and more, as Tai describes how his model is made and tells all of the numbers we need to know for the match. As always, please read on for more details, timestamps, and relevant links! 0:00- Info from the Intro: Be sure to go to MagnusNepo.com to join Aimchess’ Prediction Challenge! Check out Chess.com’s easy-to-read World Championship schedule breakdown here. Perpetual Chess Bonus World Championship Pods are planned for: November 29, December 2, December 6, December 9 and  December 133:00- We briefly review the format of the World Championship Match, and then Tai dives into what goes into his statistical model, and what it says about the upcoming match. Mentioned: Episode 249 with Dr. Mark Glickman, Nate Solon’s article about the World Championship 11:00- How would Tai’s model assess a potential rapid playoff? 16:00- What did Tai do to guess the competitors rating strengths other than just use their current FIDE ratings? Mentioned: Pinnacle Sports World Chess Championships Odds20:30- If the match goes to blitz tiebreaks, who would be the favorite to win the match? Mentioned: Matt Jensen’s World Championship Preview of Chess.com 27:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Chessable.com. Check out what's new from them here: New Chess Courses Online - For All Levels- Chessable.com Don’t forget to subscribe to the How to Chess podcast as well!27:30- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Aimchess.com. ACT NOW to enter their free Magnus-Nepo challenge on this site: https://magnusnepo.com/29:00- Patreon mailbag question: “How does acclaimed trainer and author, GM Jacob Aagaard of KillerChessTraining.com assess the World Championship?” Mentioned: Tarjei Svenson’s summary of a recent Magnus Carlsen interview 31:00- Patreon mailbag question  “What are the odds of Magnus adopting Nepo?” 33:30- How does the Aimchess.com algorithm assess the players strengths and weaknesses?Mentioned: Aimchess analysis here 35:00- We briefly discuss GM Alireza Firouzja’s recent dominance. 42:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by Chessmood.com. They offer a huge video library with instruction on every phase of the game. 43:00- Patreon mailbag question: “Any chance of Tai’s blog being sponsored by a major chess site?” Mentioned: TwoPlusTwo chess forum, New in Chess Free World Championship Digital Magazine, Dennis Monokroussos’ The Chess Mind Blog50:00- Tai shares a few more details about the methodology of his model.54:00- Tai shares a bit more about his background and his other interests outside of chess. 56:00- In terms of rating differential, what prior World Championship provides the best historical analogue?57:00- Thanks so much to Tai for sharing his data with us. Check out and subscribe to his blog here: https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/You can follow him on Twitter here: https://twitter.com/ChessNumbers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

My guest for Part 2 of the World Chess Championship preview is chess blogger Tai Pruce Zimmerman. Tai is an accountant by training, who created the excellent Chess by the Numbers blog to write about elite chess from a statistical perspective. With the World Championship just days away, I was excited to have the opportunity to ask Tai to walk us through various scenarios in the upcoming showdown between GMs Magnus Carlsen and Ian Nepomniatchtchi. We tackled questions such as the following:  Based on rating, how likely is Magnus to win? How likely are we to see tiebreaks? Would Magnus be as big a favorite if the match were to go to rapid tiebreaks? How likely would it be that one player “adopt” another? We take on all of these questions and more, as Tai describes how his model is made and tells all of the numbers we need to know for the match. As always, please read on for more details, timestamps, and relevant links! 0:00- Info from the Intro: Be sure to go to<a href="https://www.espn.in/chess/story/_/id/32637681/inside-calls-fide-change-grandmaster-requirements-nepomniachtchi-vishwanathan-anand-vladimir-kramnik" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://www.espn.in/chess/story/_/id/32637681/inside-calls-fide-change-grandmaster-requirements-nepomniachtchi-vishwanathan-anand-vladimir-kramnik" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">MagnusNepo.com</a> to join Aimchess’ Prediction Challenge! Check out <a href="http://Chess.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chess.com</a>’s easy-to-read World Championship schedule breakdown<a href="https://www.chess.com/events/2021-fide-world-chess-championship/schedule" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://www.chess.com/events/2021-fide-world-chess-championship/schedule" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a>. Perpetual Chess Bonus World Championship Pods are planned for: November 29, December 2, December 6, December 9 and  December 133:00- We briefly review the format of the World Championship Match, and then Tai dives into what goes into his statistical model, and what it says about the upcoming match. Mentioned: <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/5xo3jr6gMgVJZit6zK9b3T?si=WeDr99J-SO6qnNgytKi8zQ" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Episode 249 with Dr. Mark Glickman</a>, <a href="https://zwischenzug.substack.com/p/my-biggest-advantage-is-that-i-am" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Nate Solon’s article about the World Championship </a> 11:00- How would Tai’s model assess a potential rapid playoff?  16:00- What did Tai do to guess the competitors rating strengths other than just use their current FIDE ratings? Mentioned: <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/chess/world-chess-championship/matchups/#futures" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pinnacle Sports World Chess Championships Odds</a> 20:30- If the match goes to blitz tiebreaks, who would be the favorite to win the match? Mentioned: <a href="https://www.chess.com/article/view/2021-world-chess-championship-smarterchess-predictions" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Matt Jensen’s World Championship Preview of Chess.com</a> 27:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by <a href="http://Chessable.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chessable.com</a>. Check out what's new from them here:<a href="https://www.chessable.com/courses/all/new/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://www.chessable.com/courses/all/new/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">New Chess Courses Online - For All Levels- Chessable.com</a> Don’t forget to subscribe to the<a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/74A0JotybXUvnviTCzsSUp?si=C_P8f0VzRnGnO6zqSA8gVA&amp;dl_branch=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/74A0JotybXUvnviTCzsSUp?si=C_P8f0VzRnGnO6zqSA8gVA&amp;dl_branch=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">How to Chess podcast</a> as well!27:30- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by <a href="http://Aimchess.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aimchess.com</a>. ACT NOW to enter their free Magnus-Nepo challenge on this site:<a href="https://magnusnepo.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://magnusnepo.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://magnusnepo.com/</a> 29:00- <a href="https://www.patreon.com/perpetualchess" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Patreon mailbag question</a>: “How does acclaimed trainer and author, GM Jacob Aagaard of <a href="https://killerchesstraining.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">KillerChessTraining.com</a> assess the World Championship?” Mentioned: <a href="https://t.co/DGthHPk93H?amp=1" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tarjei Svenson’s summary of a recent Magnus Carlsen interview </a> 31:00- <a href="https://www.patreon.com/perpetualchess" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Patreon mailbag question</a>  “What are the odds of Magnus adopting Nepo?”  33:30- How does the <a href="http://Aimchess.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aimchess.com</a> algorithm assess the players strengths and weaknesses?Mentioned: Aimchess analysis <a href="https://twitter.com/chess24com/status/1460619297949110276?s=20" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">here</a> 35:00- We briefly discuss GM Alireza Firouzja’s recent dominance.  42:00- Perpetual Chess is brought to you in part by<a href="https://chessmood.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> </a><a href="https://chessmood.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chessmood.com</a>. They offer a huge video library with instruction on every phase of the game.  43:00- <a href="https://www.patreon.com/perpetualchess" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Patreon mailbag question</a>: “Any chance of Tai’s blog being sponsored by a major chess site?” Mentioned: <a href="https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/140/chess-other-board-games/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">TwoPlusTwo chess forum</a>, <a href="https://mailchi.mp/newinchess.com/free-world-chess-championship-magazine-row" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">New in Chess Free World Championship Digital Magazine</a>, <a href="http://www.thechessmind.net/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Dennis Monokroussos’ The Chess Mind Blog</a> 50:00- Tai shares a few more details about the methodology of his model. 54:00- Tai shares a bit more about his background and his other interests outside of chess.  56:00- In terms of rating differential, what prior World Championship provides the best historical analogue? 57:00- Thanks so much to Tai for sharing his data with us. Check out and subscribe to his blog here: <a href="https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/</a>You can follow him on Twitter here: <a href="https://twitter.com/ChessNumbers" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/ChessNumbers</a> Learn more about your ad choices. Visit <a href="https://megaphone.fm/adchoices" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">megaphone.fm/adchoices</a>

EP 254- World Chess Championship Preview Part 2 with Tai Pruce Zimmerman