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Carl Henrik Knutsen

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OwlTail

Magnus Rasmussen and Carl Henrik Knutsen on the importance of democracy

Magnus Rasmussen and Carl Henrik Knutsen

Haakon Gjerløw

Building effective state institutions before introducing democracy is widely presumed to improve different development outcomes. Conversely, proponents of this "stateness-first" argument anticipate that democratization before state building yields poor development outcomes. In One Road to Riches?: How State Building and Democratization Affect Economic Development (Cambridge UP, 2021), we discuss several strong assumptions that (different versions of) this argument rests upon and critically evaluate the existing evidence base. In extension, we specify various observable implications. We then subject the "stateness-first" argument to multiple tests, focusing on economic growth as an outcome. First, we conduct historical case studies of two countries with different institutional sequencing histories, Denmark and Greece, and assess the "stateness-first" argument (e.g., by using a synthetic control approach). Thereafter, we draw on an extensive global sample of about 180 countries, measured across 1789-2019 and leverage panel regressions, pre-parametric matching, and sequence analysis to test a number of observable implications. Overall, we find little evidence to support the "stateness-first" argument.

Building effective state institutions before introducing democracy is widely presumed to improve different development outcomes. Conversely, proponents of this "stateness-first" argument anticipate that democratization before state building yields poor development outcomes. In One Road to Riches?: How State Building and Democratization Affect Economic Development (Cambridge UP, 2021), we discuss several strong assumptions that (different versions of) this argument rests upon and critically evaluate the existing evidence base. In extension, we specify various observable implications. We then subject the "stateness-first" argument to multiple tests, focusing on economic growth as an outcome. First, we conduct historical case studies of two countries with different institutional sequencing histories, Denmark and Greece, and assess the "stateness-first" argument (e.g., by using a synthetic control approach). Thereafter, we draw on an extensive global sample of about 180 countries, measured across 1789-2019 and leverage panel regressions, pre-parametric matching, and sequence analysis to test a number of observable implications. Overall, we find little evidence to support the "stateness-first" argument.

Haakon Gjerløw and Carl Henrik Knutsen, "One Road to Riches?: How State Building and Democratization Affect Economic Development" (Cambridge UP, 2021)

Some of the most interesting debates on development include the role of democracy in promoting economic growth and then distributing the benefits of growth to achieve poverty reduction. Indeed, some of the questions that have attracted considerably scholarly attention in recent decades include the following: Are certain regimes better able and equipped than others to achieve economic growth? Does democracy work for the poor? Despite considerable research on the topic, the results of the democracy-growth relationship are not always very clear. But there does appear to be stronger linkages between democracy and certain types of development outcomes, including literacy and infant mortality.Guest: Carl Henrik Knutsen is a professor of political science at the University of Oslo. He has for many years studied the democracy-growth linkage and has published extensively on this subject. In a recent piece called the “Business case for democracy”, he argues that democracy works as a safety-net for avoiding the worst possible economic outcomes. And in relation to economic growth, he argues that autocracies have more variation — over countries and across time. Resources:"Democracy and human development: Issues of Conceptualization and Measurement" (2019)"Democracy and economic growth: A Survey of Arguments and Results" (2012)"Why Democracies Outgrow Autocracies in the Long Run: Civil Liberties, Information Flows and Technological Change" (2015)"Reinvestigating the Reciprocal Relationship between Democracy and Income Inequality" (2015)"Party Institutionalization and Welfare State Development" (2019)Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Political Change (2020)"Gaming Democracy: Elite Dominance during Transition and the Prospects for Redistribution" (2013)Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do about It (2013)Follow Carl Henrik Knutsen on TwitterFollow Dan Banik and In Pursuit of Development on Twitter

Some of the most interesting debates on development include the role of democracy in promoting economic growth and then distributing the benefits of growth to achieve poverty reduction. Indeed, some of the questions that have attracted considerably scholarly attention in recent decades include the following: Are certain regimes better able and equipped than others to achieve economic growth? Does democracy work for the poor? Despite considerable research on the topic, the results of the democracy-growth relationship are not always very clear. But there does appear to be stronger linkages between democracy and certain types of development outcomes, including literacy and infant mortality.Guest: <a href="https://www.sv.uio.no/isv/english/people/aca/carlhk/index.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carl Henrik Knutsen</a> is a professor of political science at the University of Oslo. He has for many years studied the democracy-growth linkage and has published extensively on this subject. In a recent piece called the “<a href="https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/d3/f1/d3f1799a-5d50-4653-8440-1e9547144c0f/wp_111_final.pdf" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Business case for democracy</a>”, he argues that democracy works as a safety-net for avoiding the worst possible economic outcomes. And in relation to economic growth, he argues that autocracies have more variation — over countries and across time. Resources:<ul><li>"<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13510347.2020.1818721" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Democracy and human development: Issues of Conceptualization and Measurement</a>" (2019)</li><li><a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2233865912455268" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">"Democracy and economic growth: A Survey of Arguments and Results"</a> (2012)</li><li><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/kykl.12087" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">"Why Democracies Outgrow Autocracies in the Long Run: Civil Liberties, Information Flows and Technological Change"</a> (2015)</li><li><a href="http://www.rei.unipg.it/rei/article/view/173" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">"Reinvestigating the Reciprocal Relationship between Democracy and Income Inequality"</a> (2015)</li><li><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/party-institutionalization-and-welfare-state-development/1FF9394BB5EF93D78E4DCA5525099540" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">"Party Institutionalization and Welfare State Development"</a> (2019)</li><li><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/varieties-of-democracy/3E23D3D8E0A47E7A6C9537C37C6D3726" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Varieties of Democracy: Measuring Two Centuries of Political Change</a> (2020)</li><li><a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/gaming-democracy-elite-dominance-during-transition-and-the-prospects-for-redistribution/40072E7109EA5E1603878A5BB4C5A3F9" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">"Gaming Democracy: Elite Dominance during Transition and the Prospects for Redistribution"</a> (2013)</li><li><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Poor-Numbers-Development-Statistics-Political/dp/080147860X/ref=as_sl_pc_qf_sp_asin_til?tag=wwwmortenjerv-20&amp;linkCode=w00&amp;linkId=&amp;creativeASIN=080147860X" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Poor Numbers: How We Are Misled by African Development Statistics and What to Do about It</a> (2013)</li></ul>Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/carlhknutsen" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carl Henrik Knutsen</a> on Twitter Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/danbanik" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Dan Banik</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/GlobalDevPod" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">In Pursuit of Development</a> on Twitter

The impact of democracy on economic growth — Carl Henrik Knutsen