Philip E. Tetlock's guest appearances

Philip E. Tetlock

Conversations with Tyler

Erik van Mechelen - Essays and Fiction

Pb Living - A daily book review

The Valmy

Margaret Atwood

Kwame Anthony Appiah

Malcolm Gladwell

Emily St

Abhijit Banerjee

John Mandel

Jhumpa Lahiri

Jordan Peterson

John Maynard Keynes

Cass Sunstein

Niall Ferguson

Daniel Kahneman

Joseph Henrich

Alex Ross

Esther Duflo

OwlTail

Dan Gardner

           In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good.                   They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.                      Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbliving/messageSupport this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbliving/support

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good.                   They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.                      Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. --- Send in a voice message: <a href="https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbliving/message" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbliving/message</a> Support this podcast: <a href="https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbliving/support" rel="payment nofollow" target="_blank">https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/pbliving/support</a>

A Book Review - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Book by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of  Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect  Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter  Follow Philip on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox.  

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136696/ref=tmm_h" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction</a>. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Read a <a href="https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/philip-e-tetlock/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">full transcript</a> enhanced with helpful links, or watch the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJoImhNTvA8&amp;list=PLS8aEHTqDvpInY9kslUOOK8Qj_-B91o_W&amp;index=52" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">full video</a>. Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect <ul> <li>Follow us on <a href="https://twitter.com/cowenconvos" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.instagram.com/cowenconvos/?hl=en" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Instagram</a></li> <li>Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/tylercowen" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tyler</a> on Twitter </li> <li>Follow <a href="https://twitter.com/PTetlock" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Philip</a> on Twitter</li> <li>Email us: <a href="mailto:cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu" rel="noopener noreferrer">cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.mercatus.org/podcasts" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Subscribe at our newsletter page</a> to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox. </li> </ul>

Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox

If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’.Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now).You can support my work at https://patreon.com/evm/

If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’. Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now). You can support my work at <a href="https://patreon.com/evm/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://patreon.com/evm/</a>

Allons Travailler! 004 - All of Life is a Wager (Super Forecasting by Philip E. Tetlock)