5 minute summaries
1 quote, 3 ideas & 1 question from each episode
__________
10 Mar 2021
58mins
FEATURING
Owltail Summaries
1 quote, 3 ideas & 1 question from each episode
_________
John Cochrane on Economic Puzzles and Habits of Mind
10 Mar 2021
58mins
Quote
"John says: I have a hard time figuring out what I think is right, let alone why other people get things wrong. Looking into people’s heads is another bad intellectual habit"
Ideas
1
John says: Economists should never make predictions.
Which Tyler replied with; But theories make predictions.
And then John says: Theories make conditional predictions. Theories make if x happens and you hold everything else constant, then y ought to happen.
Economics is awfully bad at making unconditional predictions.
John thinks it's a mistake to get into that game, where you say something is going to happen always.
And then John says: Theories make conditional predictions. Theories make if x happens and you hold everything else constant, then y ought to happen.
Economics is awfully bad at making unconditional predictions.
John thinks it's a mistake to get into that game, where you say something is going to happen always.
1
John says: Economists should never make predictions.
Which Tyler replied with; But theories make predictions.
And then John says: Theories make conditional predictions. Theories make if x happens and you hold everything else constant, then y ought to happen.
Economics is awfully bad at making unconditional predictions.
John thinks it's a mistake to get into that game, where you say something is going to happen always.
And then John says: Theories make conditional predictions. Theories make if x happens and you hold everything else constant, then y ought to happen.
Economics is awfully bad at making unconditional predictions.
John thinks it's a mistake to get into that game, where you say something is going to happen always.
2
One of the major changes of our time is the hyper-specialization of people in certain industries.
John talks about how people like him & Eugene Fama, a Novel Prize winning economist, wouldn't be able to get into economics anymore. Eugene did his internship when he was an undergrad in the steel mills, John himself only applied to be an economics graduate student on a whim one month before es .
He says, you can't do that anymore. You have to be deeply ingrained in the system, ing as an undergraduate. Nowadays, it's harder to get into certain fields unless you early on, whilst previously, there was much more freewheeling.
He says, you can't do that anymore. You have to be deeply ingrained in the system, ing as an undergraduate. Nowadays, it's harder to get into certain fields unless you early on, whilst previously, there was much more freewheeling.
2
One of the major changes of our time is the hyper-specialization of people in certain industries.
John talks about how people like him & Eugene Fama, a Novel Prize winning economist, wouldn't be able to get into economics anymore. Eugene did his internship when he was an undergrad in the steel mills, John himself only applied to be an economics graduate student on a whim one month before es .
He says, you can't do that anymore. You have to be deeply ingrained in the system, ing as an undergraduate. Nowadays, it's harder to get into certain fields unless you early on, whilst previously, there was much more freewheeling.
He says, you can't do that anymore. You have to be deeply ingrained in the system, ing as an undergraduate. Nowadays, it's harder to get into certain fields unless you early on, whilst previously, there was much more freewheeling.
3
John believes, one of the biggest issues in industries such as universities and health care, is a lack of competition.
A nonprofit or government owned enterprise, is protected from the market for corporate control. If Stanford University or a hospital, is screwing up, you can't just buy up all the shares, kick out the management, and improve it.
An example inside of healthcare would be how they've just recently said hospitals have to disclose prices. Which is a big red flag of a horribly uncompetitive business.
If an airline tried to not disclose prices until you get off the plane or finished using the product, it'd be bankrupt because nobody would fly it, but that's unfortunately what's happening in our healthcare system.
An example inside of healthcare would be how they've just recently said hospitals have to disclose prices. Which is a big red flag of a horribly uncompetitive business.
If an airline tried to not disclose prices until you get off the plane or finished using the product, it'd be bankrupt because nobody would fly it, but that's unfortunately what's happening in our healthcare system.
3
John believes, one of the biggest issues in industries such as universities and health care, is a lack of competition.
A nonprofit or government owned enterprise, is protected from the market for corporate control. If Stanford University or a hospital, is screwing up, you can't just buy up all the shares, kick out the management, and improve it.
An example inside of healthcare would be how they've just recently said hospitals have to disclose prices. Which is a big red flag of a horribly uncompetitive business.
If an airline tried to not disclose prices until you get off the plane or finished using the product, it'd be bankrupt because nobody would fly it, but that's unfortunately what's happening in our healthcare system.
An example inside of healthcare would be how they've just recently said hospitals have to disclose prices. Which is a big red flag of a horribly uncompetitive business.
If an airline tried to not disclose prices until you get off the plane or finished using the product, it'd be bankrupt because nobody would fly it, but that's unfortunately what's happening in our healthcare system.
Questions
1
Can you think of something where competition has helped or
something that needs more competition?
1
Can you think of something where competition has helped or
something that needs more competition?
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