Peter Hurford's guest appearances

Peter Hurford

EA Talks

Global Guessing Podcasts

Tim Urban

Peter Thiel

Ezra Klein

Erik Torenberg

Irene Pepperberg

Paul Shapiro

Allison Smith

Dan Brown

Nick Bostrom

Robin Hanson

Stuart Russell

Ben Hoffman

Daron Acemoglu

Brian Nosek

Rob Reich

OwlTail

When the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Wildeford, a top-100 forecaster on Metaculus and Forecast App, and the co-CEO of the think tank Rethink Priorities. Peter’s forecast was more accurate than most, letting him turn his foresight into triple-digit returns. In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve. Find Peter Wildeford : https://twitter.com/peterwildeford Rethink Priorities: https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/ Global Guessing: https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup

When the Suez Canal got blocked by the Ever Given shipping vessel a global trade crisis began, costing the global economy $10 billion a day. Knowing when this crisis would end had immense valuable, but predicting the clearing was easier said than done—as our own forecast showed. One person who got it done was Peter Wildeford, a top-100 forecaster on Metaculus and Forecast App, and the co-CEO of the think tank Rethink Priorities. Peter’s forecast was more accurate than most, letting him turn his foresight into triple-digit returns. In the inaugural episode of The Right Side of Maybe—a new podcast where we learn from and about elite forecasters—we talked to Peter about the method behind his Ever Given forecast and the ways in which he leveraged it for profit on Polymarket. We also talked to Peter about his background in forecasting and recent experience with prediction markets, as well as some of the most important areas of psychology and science where Peter thinks forecasters can improve. Find Peter Wildeford : <a href="https://twitter.com/peterhurford" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/peterwildeford</a> Rethink Priorities: <a href="https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/</a> Global Guessing: <a href="https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://globalguessing.com/#/portal/signup</a>

✅ How Peter Wildeford Forecasted the Ever Given Crisis and Profited

Ballot initiatives have allowed many groups in the United States to achieve policy outcomes outside the traditional legislative process. In this talk, Peter Hurford, a co-founder and researcher at Rethink Priorities, describes how the EA movement can generate change through the initiative process by matching effective policies to promising states and cities.To learn more about effective altruism, visit effectivealtruism.orgThis talk was filmed at EA Global 2019: San Francisco. You can learn more about these conferences at eaglobal.org.Original VideoEffective Altruism is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. EA Global conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on YouTube. 

Ballot initiatives have allowed many groups in the United States to achieve policy outcomes outside the traditional legislative process. In this talk, Peter Hurford, a co-founder and researcher at Rethink Priorities, describes how the EA movement can generate change through the initiative process by matching effective policies to promising states and cities.To learn more about effective altruism, visit <a href="http://effectivealtruism.org" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">effectivealtruism.org</a>This talk was filmed at EA Global 2019: San Francisco. You can learn more about these conferences at <a href="https://www.eaglobal.org" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">eaglobal.org</a>.<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4u1vnlmLF-0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Original Video</a><a href="https://www.effectivealtruism.org/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Effective Altruism</a> is a social movement dedicated to finding ways to do the most good possible, whether through charitable donations, career choices, or volunteer projects. <a href="https://www.eaglobal.com/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">EA Global</a> conferences are gatherings for EAs to meet. You can also listen to this talk along with its accompanying video on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/c/EffectiveAltruismVideos" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">YouTube</a>.

EAG 2019 SF: U.S. ballot initiatives as a pathway for EA policy (Peter Hurford)