Paul Heer's guest appearances

Paul Heer

Sinica Podcast

Conversation Six

Carl Minzner

Susan Thornton

Ali Wyne

Leta Hong Fincher

Jude Blanchette

Dexter Roberts

Kevin Rudd

Paul Triolo

Evan Feigenbaum

Antony Dapiran

Michael Swaine

Rana Mitter

Cheng Li

Ryan Hass

John Delury

OwlTail

Maggie Lewis

This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Margaret (Maggie) Lewis, professor of law at Seton Hall University and veteran Taiwan observer, and Paul Heer, former national intelligence officer for East Asia in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) under the Obama administration. Both were members of the Council on Foreign Relations’s task force on U.S.-Taiwan policy, which produced a report titled “U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China.” Both also wrote dissents, included in the report, about some of its findings and recommendations. They discuss what they think the report got right — and what it got wrong.01:01 – Introduction to the CFR’s report U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China05:09 – The mechanics of producing the report06:46 – Areas of common consensus among participants08:48 – What is the significance of the PLA’s centennial in 2027 in view of the CFR task force?10:54 – Is the report too focused on the military at the expense of political, diplomatic, and economic considerations?14:22 – Taiwanese perspectives in the report16:36 – Strategic ambiguity and President Biden’s “gaffes” as a new baseline for U.S. declaratory policy20:48 – The issue of deterrence: American and Chinese approaches25:48 – What has the United States done to move the status quo in terms of the Taiwan issue?41:06 – Is there evidence yet of Chinese preparation for a military action against Taiwan?A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com.Recommendations:Maggie: Fever: The Hunt for Covid’s Origin by John Sudworth (podcast)Paul: Oppenheimer by Christopher Nolan Kennan: A life between Worlds by Frank Costigliola Kaiser: The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline by Yasheng HuangSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser is joined by Margaret (Maggie) Lewis, professor of law at Seton Hall University and veteran Taiwan observer, and Paul Heer, former national intelligence officer for East Asia in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) under the Obama administration. Both were members of the Council on Foreign Relations’s task force on U.S.-Taiwan policy, which produced a report titled “U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China.” Both also wrote dissents, included in the report, about some of its findings and recommendations. They discuss what they think the report got right — and what it got wrong.01:01 – Introduction to the CFR’s report U.S.-Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Assertive China05:09 – The mechanics of producing the report06:46 – Areas of common consensus among participants08:48 – What is the significance of the PLA’s centennial in 2027 in view of the CFR task force?10:54 – Is the report too focused on the military at the expense of political, diplomatic, and economic considerations?14:22 – Taiwanese perspectives in the report16:36 – Strategic ambiguity and President Biden’s “gaffes” as a new baseline for U.S. declaratory policy20:48 – The issue of deterrence: American and Chinese approaches25:48 – What has the United States done to move the status quo in terms of the Taiwan issue?41:06 – Is there evidence yet of Chinese preparation for a military action against Taiwan?<a href="https://thechinaproject.com/2023/07/27/the-cfr-taiwan-task-force-report-advice-and-dissent/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com</a>. Recommendations:Maggie: <a href="https://podtail.com/podcast/fever-the-hunt-for-covid-s-origin/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Fever: The Hunt for Covid’s Origin</a> by John Sudworth (podcast)Paul: <a href="https://www.oppenheimermovie.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Oppenheimer</a> by Christopher Nolan <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kennan-between-Worlds-Frank-Costigliola/dp/0691165408" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Kennan: A life between Worlds</a> by Frank Costigliola Kaiser: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-EAST-Autocracy-Technology/dp/0300266367/ref=sr_1_1?crid=PN9FQ7OQM8RI&amp;keywords=The+Rise+and+Fall+of+the+EAST%3A+How+Exams%2C+Autocracy%2C+Stability%2C+and+Technology+Brought+China+Success%2C+and+Why+They+Might+Lead+to+Its+Decline&amp;qid=1690405922&amp;sprefix=the+rise+and+fall+of+the+east+how+exams%2C+autocracy%2C+stability%2C+and+technology+brought+china+success%2C+and+why+they+might+lead+to+its+decline%2Caps%2C185&amp;sr=8-1" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success, and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline</a> by Yasheng Huang See Privacy Policy at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy</a> and California Privacy Notice at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info</a>.

The CFR Taiwan task force report: advice and dissent, with Maggie Lewis and Paul Heer

Paul Heer and Cecile Shea on Biden's mention of China in Saudi Arabia

Paul Heer and Cecile Shea

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with Paul Heer about the conundrum of Taiwan — one of the thorniest and most fraught issues confronting the new Biden foreign policy team as it navigates the U.S.-China relationship. Paul is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for the National Interest and studies Chinese and East Asian issues. He served as the national intelligence officer for East Asia from 2007 to 2015, and was previously a senior analyst at the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence in its China Issue Group. In December 2020, Paul published two articles about Taiwan policy in The National Interest: “The Strategic Dilemma of Taiwan’s Democracy” and “The Inconvenient Truth About Taiwan’s Place in the World.” This episode’s conversation centers on the diagnosis and recommendations made in those two pieces.6:48: The democratic David versus the authoritarian Goliath17:47: Taiwan reunification in the Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 era36:55: The U.S. position on Taiwan40:22: The future of one country, two systemsRecommendations:Paul: The works of Charles Dickens. Kaiser: Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art, by Rebecca Wragg Sykes.Subscribe to China Stories here, the newest podcast in the Sinica Podcast Network. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with <a href="https://cftni.org/expert/paul-heer/" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Paul Heer</a> about the conundrum of Taiwan — one of the thorniest and most fraught issues confronting the new Biden foreign policy team as it navigates the U.S.-China relationship. Paul is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for the National Interest and studies Chinese and East Asian issues. He served as the national intelligence officer for East Asia from 2007 to 2015, and was previously a senior analyst at the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence in its China Issue Group. In December 2020, Paul published two articles about Taiwan policy in The National Interest: “<a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/strategic-dilemma-taiwan%E2%80%99s-democracy-174953" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Strategic Dilemma of Taiwan’s Democracy</a>” and “<a href="https://nationalinterest.org/feature/inconvenient-truth-about-taiwan%E2%80%99s-place-world-169659" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">The Inconvenient Truth About Taiwan’s Place in the World</a>.” This episode’s conversation centers on the diagnosis and recommendations made in those two pieces.6:48: The democratic David versus the authoritarian Goliath17:47: Taiwan reunification in the Xí Jìnpíng 习近平 era36:55: The U.S. position on Taiwan40:22: The future of one country, two systemsRecommendations:Paul: The works of Charles Dickens. Kaiser: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kindred-Neanderthal-Life-Love-Death/dp/147293749X" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Kindred: Neanderthal Life, Love, Death and Art</a>, by Rebecca Wragg Sykes. <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/china-stories/id1550780030" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">Subscribe to China Stories here</a>, the newest podcast in the Sinica Podcast Network. See Privacy Policy at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy</a> and California Privacy Notice at <a href="https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info</a>.

Talking Taiwan with former national intelligence officer Paul Heer