Gary Langer's guest appearances

Gary Langer

The Mike Hosking Breakfast

How Do We Fix It?

Neil deGrasse Tyson

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Jennifer McCrea

Laura Vanderkam

Vanessa Hayes

Joan Blades

John Gable

Greta Thunberg

Phil Jones

Willie Nelson

Jon Mooallem

Bernie Sanders

Ross Taylor

Sarah Jessica Parker

OwlTail

Tuesday is the biggest day of the primary calendar, when 14 states from the Atlantic to the Pacific vote on the Democratic presidential nominee. The roster includes the nation's two most populous states, California and Texas, and nearly one-third of all the delegates at July's Democratic National Convention are up for grabs.Here are some key questions ahead of Super Tuesday:CAN SANDERS RECAPTURE THE NARRATIVE?Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has long promised that he could substantially expand the electorate beyond traditional Democratic voters, but that hasn't happened in the first four contests.Super Tuesday represents his biggest chance to prove his case. He is far better financed and organized than former Vice President Joe Biden, who trounced Sanders in South Carolina on Saturday.With five major candidates running, it's been impossible for anyone to claim a clear majority, but Sanders' durable base has given him a crucial plurality of the vote, and, more important, a small lead in delegates.Sanders needs as many delegates as possible because his opponents argue the convention itself should decide the nominee should no one secure a clear majority. Sanders argues that the candidate with the most votes should get the nomination — an easier case to make if he comes into the Democratic National Convention with a large plurality.Tuesday represents Sanders' best shot at building a durable advantage in the race. Because the Democratic Party awards delegates proportionately, once someone racks up an advantage in the delegate count, it's difficult to catch them. And after Tuesday, the terrain shifts to states that aren't as favorable to Sanders.CAN BIDEN EMERGE AS THE “STOP SANDERS” CANDIDATE?Biden dramatically under performed in Iowa and New Hampshire, part of a collapse among white voters that allowed Sanders to vault into the lead. But Biden regained his footing in South Carolina, propelled by the overwhelming support of black voters. That aided Biden's case that the candidate who prevails among these base voters will win the nomination.Biden's campaign hopes that allows him to vastly over perform his polls for Super Tuesday and consolidate the splintered anti-Sanders factions in the Democratic Party.The hope in the former vice president's camp is that it becomes effectively a two-person race after Tuesday, which may give him an advantage in upcoming states like Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania.WHICH CANDIDATES CAN STAY VIABLE?Remember 15%. That's the share of votes a candidate has to get to win delegates in primary elections. With five Democrats left in the race, there's a real threat that only one or two will actually grab delegates, with the rest splitting the remaining vote in the low teens.The risks of that diminished with the exit of Pete Buttigieg from the race Sunday night and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar on Monday, but they certainly didn't go away. That would be a dream scenario for Sanders, who in some states could grab a far greater proportion of available delegates than his vote share would represent. Some polls have shown it as a distinct possibility in delegate-rich California.DOES BLOOMBERG'S BIG BET PAY OFF?Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg bet more than a half billion dollars on Super Tuesday, and we get to see if it was well spent.Bloomberg is a billionaire, and rather than competing in the first four primary states, he decided to spend a huge sum of money on advertisements and campaign organizations in the 14 states voting Tuesday, as well as on other ones voting in the coming weeks.But since he first appeared on the debate stage, his polls plummeted and now he runs the risk of falling into the sub-15% zone in a number of states.Even if he doesn't, will Bloomberg's ultimate impact be to fragment the anti-Sanders vote further and help pave the way for the self-proclaimed democratic socialist whom he says he got in the race to stop?HOW DOES THE CALIFORNIA COUNT EFFECT THE RACE?Calif...

Tuesday is the biggest day of the primary calendar, when 14 states from the Atlantic to the Pacific vote on the Democratic presidential nominee. The roster includes the nation's two most populous states, California and Texas, and nearly one-third of all the delegates at July's Democratic National Convention are up for grabs. Here are some key questions ahead of Super Tuesday: CAN SANDERS RECAPTURE THE NARRATIVE? Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has long promised that he could substantially expand the electorate beyond traditional Democratic voters, but that hasn't happened in the first four contests. Super Tuesday represents his biggest chance to prove his case. He is far better financed and organized than former Vice President Joe Biden, who trounced Sanders in South Carolina on Saturday. With five major candidates running, it's been impossible for anyone to claim a clear majority, but Sanders' durable base has given him a crucial plurality of the vote, and, more important, a small lead in delegates. Sanders needs as many delegates as possible because his opponents argue the convention itself should decide the nominee should no one secure a clear majority. Sanders argues that the candidate with the most votes should get the nomination — an easier case to make if he comes into the Democratic National Convention with a large plurality. Tuesday represents Sanders' best shot at building a durable advantage in the race. Because the Democratic Party awards delegates proportionately, once someone racks up an advantage in the delegate count, it's difficult to catch them. And after Tuesday, the terrain shifts to states that aren't as favorable to Sanders. CAN BIDEN EMERGE AS THE “STOP SANDERS” CANDIDATE? Biden dramatically under performed in Iowa and New Hampshire, part of a collapse among white voters that allowed Sanders to vault into the lead. But Biden regained his footing in South Carolina, propelled by the overwhelming support of black voters. That aided Biden's case that the candidate who prevails among these base voters will win the nomination. Biden's campaign hopes that allows him to vastly over perform his polls for Super Tuesday and consolidate the splintered anti-Sanders factions in the Democratic Party. The hope in the former vice president's camp is that it becomes effectively a two-person race after Tuesday, which may give him an advantage in upcoming states like Florida, Illinois and Pennsylvania. WHICH CANDIDATES CAN STAY VIABLE? Remember 15%. That's the share of votes a candidate has to get to win delegates in primary elections. With five Democrats left in the race, there's a real threat that only one or two will actually grab delegates, with the rest splitting the remaining vote in the low teens. The risks of that diminished with the exit of Pete Buttigieg from the race Sunday night and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar on Monday, but they certainly didn't go away. That would be a dream scenario for Sanders, who in some states could grab a far greater proportion of available delegates than his vote share would represent. Some polls have shown it as a distinct possibility in delegate-rich California. DOES BLOOMBERG'S BIG BET PAY OFF? Former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg bet more than a half billion dollars on Super Tuesday, and we get to see if it was well spent. Bloomberg is a billionaire, and rather than competing in the first four primary states, he decided to spend a huge sum of money on advertisements and campaign organizations in the 14 states voting Tuesday, as well as on other ones voting in the coming weeks. But since he first appeared on the debate stage, his polls plummeted and now he runs the risk of falling into the sub-15% zone in a number of states. Even if he doesn't, will Bloomberg's ultimate impact be to fragment the anti-Sanders vote further and help pave the way for the self-proclaimed democratic socialist whom he says he got in the race to stop? HOW DOES THE CALIFORNIA COUNT EFFECT THE RACE? Calif...

Gary Langer: Five key questions ahead of critical Super Tuesday primaries

Are opinion polls accurate?  Did they miss the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders?  Do they properly measure America's increasingly sharp political and cultural divisions?  What's the difference between a well-designed poll conducted with careful methodology and a sloppy opt-in online survey?  Our guest is Gary Langer, an internationally recognized opinion researcher and longtime director of polling at ABC News. He has overseen and analyzed more than 750 surveys on a broad range of topics. Gary has a passion for numbers and explains what listeners should know about polls.  He tells us that surveys taken at least a year ago - when many pundits dismissed Trump as an outlier - clearly showed that his views on banning oversees Muslim visitors and building a wall along border with Mexico had substantial support among Republican voters. Trump led the  GOP field throughout the lead-up to the primary season.   "The news media have for far too long indulged themselves in the lazy luxury of being both data hungry and math phobic," Gary tells us.  "I would suggest polls are anti-pundit. A good quality poll ... holds a pundit's feet to the fire " In this episode we get some vital takeaways on how well researched randomized polls are conducted and what changes have been made recently to ensure that a representative sample is reached. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are opinion polls accurate?  Did they miss the rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders?  Do they properly measure America's increasingly sharp political and cultural divisions?  What's the difference between a well-designed poll conducted with careful methodology and a sloppy opt-in online survey? Our guest is <a href="http://www.langerresearch.com/our-depth/gary-langer/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Gary Langer</a>, an internationally recognized opinion researcher and longtime director of polling at ABC News. He has overseen and analyzed more than 750 surveys on a broad range of topics. Gary has a passion for numbers and explains what listeners should know about polls.  He tells us that surveys taken at least a year ago - when many pundits dismissed Trump as an outlier - clearly showed that his views on banning oversees Muslim visitors and building a wall along border with Mexico had substantial support among Republican voters. Trump led the  GOP field throughout the lead-up to the primary season.   "The news media have for far too long indulged themselves in the lazy luxury of being both data hungry and math phobic," Gary tells us.  "I would suggest polls are anti-pundit. A good quality poll ... holds a pundit's feet to the fire " In this episode we get some vital takeaways on how well researched randomized polls are conducted and what changes have been made recently to ensure that a representative sample is reached. Hosted on Acast. See <a href="https://acast.com/privacy" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" target="_blank">acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.

#58 A Better Way to Understand Polls: Gary Langer