Paul Schmelzing's guest appearances

Paul Schmelzing

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Bond Vigilantes

Narratives w/Will Jarvis

Keep Calm and Carry On Investing (TM)

David Smith

Caleb Watney

Ryan Avent

Ramesh Ponnuru

Mark Yusko

Fannie Mae

Sebastian Edwards

Alex Nowrasteh

Diego Zuluaga

Steve Horwitz

Felix Salmon

Stephen King

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Kelly Starrett

Binyamin Appelbaum

OwlTail

In this episode I'm joined by economist Paul Schmelzing to talk about the 800 year decline in interest rates and the history of banking crises  https://www.pfschmelzing.me/

In this episode I'm joined by economist Paul Schmelzing to talk about the 800 year decline in interest rates and the history of banking crises  <a href="https://www.pfschmelzing.me/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.pfschmelzing.me/</a>

90: The 800 Year Decline in Interest Rates with Paul Schmelzing

Paul Schmelzing is an economic historian, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England and a postdoc at the Yale University School of Management. Paul has written an influential new paper on the long history of interest rates titled, "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018." Specifically, Paul and David discuss the implications of this paper’s findings for secular stagnation theory, Thomas Piketty’s inegalitarian wealth spiral, and for macroeconomic policy more generally.   Transcript for the episode can be found here:  https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Paul’s Twitter: @paul_schmelzing Paul’s Harvard profile:  https://scholar.harvard.edu/pfschmelzing/bio   Related Links:   * Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018* by Paul Schmelzing  https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Paul Schmelzing is an economic historian, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England and a postdoc at the Yale University School of Management. Paul has written an influential new paper on the long history of interest rates titled, "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311–2018." Specifically, Paul and David discuss the implications of this paper’s findings for secular stagnation theory, Thomas Piketty’s inegalitarian wealth spiral, and for macroeconomic policy more generally. Transcript for the episode can be found here: <a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.mercatus.org%2Fbridge%2Ftags%2Fmacro-musings&amp;data=02%7C01%7CMdupont%40mercatus.gmu.edu%7C4d97c864bbd34516644508d7b81e789b%7C3935d3b92ba64346b5fc782c3b401577%7C0%7C0%7C637180313322928915&amp;sdata=IBfQyjQ%2FtABDhKInJolg5zANwjwsUwuIqTMilhGHzaM%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings</a> Paul’s Twitter: @paul_schmelzing Paul’s Harvard profile: <a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fscholar.harvard.edu%2Fpfschmelzing%2Fbio&amp;data=02%7C01%7CMdupont%40mercatus.gmu.edu%7C4d97c864bbd34516644508d7b81e789b%7C3935d3b92ba64346b5fc782c3b401577%7C0%7C0%7C637180313322938915&amp;sdata=1ObYLNdsWxTlTImtWNLymMGwhJiLgYMttfud5DoK2VY%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> https://scholar.harvard.edu/pfschmelzing/bio</a> Related Links: * Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline, 1311–2018* by Paul Schmelzing <a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bankofengland.co.uk%2Fworking-paper%2F2020%2Feight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018&amp;data=02%7C01%7CMdupont%40mercatus.gmu.edu%7C4d97c864bbd34516644508d7b81e789b%7C3935d3b92ba64346b5fc782c3b401577%7C0%7C0%7C637180313322938915&amp;sdata=AZRQ1Hz%2BnlVXIiQ2E4zWBaAEFozlQLXQaC2ioP5O3hU%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank"> https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018</a> David’s blog: <a href="http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">macromarketmusings.blogspot.com</a> David’s Twitter: @<a href="https://nam05.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fsoundcloud.com%2FDavidBeckworth&amp;data=02%7C01%7CMdupont%40mercatus.gmu.edu%7C4d97c864bbd34516644508d7b81e789b%7C3935d3b92ba64346b5fc782c3b401577%7C0%7C0%7C637180313322948905&amp;sdata=HTY1QQfVmowPwpLVj7%2BjrQPgR4KdZP2szThu3OuvHV8%3D&amp;reserved=0" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">DavidBeckworth</a>

Paul Schmelzing on the ‘Suprasecular’ Decline of Global Real Interest Rates

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&amp;G Securities Limited and M&amp;G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see Bondvigilantes.com for further information.It’s rare to find a piece of writing that EVERYONE in bond markets has read and is talking about, but in January, a blog by Paul Schmelzing on the Bank of England’s excellent Bank Underground site did just that.  Paul is a visiting scholar from Harvard University, working at the Bank of England to research foreign exchange policy in the era of Bretton Woods.  In the blog however he took a very long view of eight hundred years of bull and bear markets in government/risk free bonds.Paul came in to see us earlier this week to discuss three of the significant bond bear markets we’ve seen in the last 60 years or so, and to consider what the next bond bear market might look like once the “Volcker bull market” eventually comes to an end.

For investment professionals only. Not for onward distribution. Issued by M&amp;G Securities Limited and M&amp;G International Investments Ltd. Both are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK. Please see <a href="http://Bondvigilantes.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bondvigilantes.com</a> for further information. It’s rare to find a piece of writing that EVERYONE in bond markets has read and is talking about, but in January, a blog by Paul Schmelzing on the Bank of England’s excellent Bank Underground site did just that.  Paul is a visiting scholar from Harvard University, working at the Bank of England to research foreign exchange policy in the era of Bretton Woods.  In the blog however he took a very long view of eight hundred years of bull and bear markets in government/risk free bonds. Paul came in to see us earlier this week to discuss three of the significant bond bear markets we’ve seen in the last 60 years or so, and to consider what the next bond bear market might look like once the “Volcker bull market” eventually comes to an end.

“Venetians, Volcker and Value-at-Risk: 8 centuries of bond market reversals”. Our interview with Bank Underground’s Paul Schmelzing.